Criminal Justice: Data on Noncitizen Incarcerations, Convictions, Removals, and Costs

TL;DR

GAO reported a substantial decline in the federal noncitizen incarcerated population: BOP-held noncitizens averaged about 36,300 in FY2017 and about 20,300 in FY2024, a 44% decrease, and noncitizens declined as a share of the overall BOP population. Immigration-related offenses made up more than half of convictions for BOP-incarcerated noncitizens and roughly 30% were drug-related. ICE removed about 84,800 (76%) of the 111,200 noncitizens who completed at least one BOP incarceration term from FY2017 through FY2024, as of December 2025. State and local data are incomplete, but SCAAP-eligible incarcerations fell from about 128,000 in state FY2016 to about 73,500 in state FY2022 (a 43% decrease). DOJ spending on incarcerating noncitizens exceeded $9 billion for FY2016–FY2023, including approximately $8 billion for BOP and $1.44 billion in SCAAP reimbursements. Immediate implications: procurement priorities and data analytics needs for correctional and justice systems may shift, compliance posture around criminal justice information and privacy remains critical, and capture teams should re-evaluate pipelines against changing incarceration and removal patterns.

Key Points

• What happened: BOP noncitizen incarcerations decreased 44% from FY2017 (~36,300) to FY2024 (~20,300); immigration-related offenses were over half of convictions for BOP noncitizens; ICE removed ~84,800 (76%) of 111,200 noncitizen releases from FY2017–FY2024 (as of December 2025); SCAAP-eligible incarcerations dropped ~43% from state FY2016 (~128,000) to state FY2022 (~73,500); DOJ spent over $9 billion on incarcerating noncitizens for FY2016–FY2023.
• Who is affected: Correctional Facilities Management; Immigration Enforcement Services; Criminal Justice Data Systems; Detention Services; Law Enforcement Support Services; Justice Information Systems. NAICS codes in scope include 922140, 561210, 541690, 541990, 561990, 541611, 541219. Agencies named: DOJ, BOP, ICE, DHS (Department of Homeland Security), BJA.
• Timeline: GAO analyses cover generally FY2017–FY2024 for BOP data and state FY2016–FY2022 for SCAAP data; ICE removal counts are reported as of December 2025.
• What contractors should do NOW: immediately re-run opportunity pipelines against updated incarceration/removal metrics; validate CJIS and Privacy Act compliance for any criminal-justice data work; prioritize capture actions for analytics, records management, and detention support where federal reimbursement or federal/state interaction exists; brief capture and proposal teams and start a fast-track bid/no-bid assessment.

Who Is Affected

Affected market segments include Correctional Facilities Management; Immigration Enforcement Services; Criminal Justice Data Systems; Detention Services; Law Enforcement Support Services; Justice Information Systems. Specific NAICS codes and agencies are listed in the event segmentation: 922140, 561210, 541690, 541990, 561990, 541611, 541219; DOJ, BOP, ICE, DHS, BJA. Compliance surfaces to account for include CJIS Security Policy, Privacy Act, and Criminal Justice Information Services.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How large was the decline in noncitizens incarcerated by BOP?

A: GAO found a 44% average decline from FY2017 (~36,300) to FY2024 (~20,300).

Q: Do we have full state and local counts for noncitizen incarcerations?

A: No—GAO states there are no reliable comprehensive data for all noncitizens incarcerated by states and localities. GAO used SCAAP data as a partial indicator (about 73,500 SCAAP-eligible incarcerations in state FY2022, down ~43% from ~128,000 in state FY2016).

Q: What are the federal cost implications called out by GAO?

A: DOJ spent more than $9 billion incarcerating noncitizens for FY2016–FY2023: about $8 billion for BOP incarceration and about $1.44 billion in SCAAP reimbursements for state fiscal years 2016–2022.

Definitions

• Noncitizens: All individuals who are not U.S. citizens, regardless of their immigration status (per GAO’s usage in the report).
• BOP: Federal Bureau of Prisons.
• SCAAP: State Criminal Alien Assistance Program — a DOJ program that reimburses jurisdictions for a portion of eligible costs attributable to incarcerating noncitizens who meet program requirements.
• ICE: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
• DOJ: Department of Justice.
• BJA: Bureau of Justice Assistance.

Intelligence Response

• Cabrillo Signals War Room — Already detected this GAO update and delivered this briefing. War Room monitoring flagged shifts in incarceration counts, removal statistics, and SCAAP trends that can change demand signals for correctional, detention, and justice-data procurements.
• Cabrillo Signals Match Engine — Automatically rescored active opportunity pipelines and prioritized openings where changes in federal/state incarceration and reimbursement patterns materially affect program size or mission scope.
• Cabrillo Signals Intelligence Hub — Tracked affected agencies, the NAICS list, and identified saved searches for follow-on solicitations and amendments; it will alert capture teams when related solicitations or notices appear on SAM.gov (System for Award Management).
• Proposal Studio (Proposal OS) & Proposal Studio Workflow Tracker — Recommend engaging Proposal Studio immediately to generate compliance matrices (CJIS/Privacy), update win themes tied to analytics/detention services, and run the 9-gate capture workflow to produce audit-ready documentation and accelerate a bid/no-bid decision.

Who to notify now: capture manager, proposal lead, BD lead, security/compliance officer (CJIS/Privacy lead), and technical lead for justice-data systems. Use the Winning Federal Contracts Guide (/insights/winning-federal-contracts) and related compliance guides (CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) Compliance Guide (/insights/cmmc-compliance-guide), CUI (Controlled Unclassified Information)-Safe CRM Guide (/insights/cui-safe-crm-guide)) to align security and proposal actions.

First 48-hour response playbook

• Hour 0–4: Triage the alert in Cabrillo Signals War Room; notify capture/proposal/compliance leads; tag affected opportunities in the Match Engine.
• Hour 4–12: Run rescoring in Match Engine; generate an initial compliance matrix in Proposal Studio; conduct a rapid bid/no-bid using Proposal Studio Workflow Tracker.
• Hour 12–24: Assemble core proposal team, assign storyboards, gather existing past performance and CJIS/privacy evidence; start a draft win strategy focused on analytics, records, or detention support as applicable.
• Hour 24–48: Finalize bid/no-bid, lock compliance routing through Workflow Tracker, and begin proposal production if proceeding.