Criminal Justice: Data on Noncitizen Incarcerations, Convictions, Removals, and Costs

Executive Summary

The GAO report documents large, sustained declines in the number and share of noncitizens incarcerated by the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) (a 44% decline in average annual BOP noncitizen population from FY2017 to FY2024) and similarly large declines in SCAAP-eligible incarcerations in state/local systems (a 43% decline from state FY2016 to state FY2022). The report also highlights cumulative federal costs and reimbursements analyzed across multi-year windows (cost analyses spanning FY2016–FY2023 for DOJ/BOP and state FY2016–FY2022 for SCAAP) and notes substantial ICE removals tied to BOP releases (ICE removed ~84,800 of 111,200 BOP-release noncitizens from FY2017–FY2024, as of December 2025). Contractors that supply correctional capacity, detention services, enforcement-support, and justice/justice-information systems should treat this as a material market signal: demand volumes and federal/state spending patterns tied to noncitizen incarceration have shifted materially, and GAO explicitly calls out gaps in comprehensive statewide/local data.

Key near-term implications are twofold: (1) providers of brick-and-mortar incarceration/detention capacity and related operational services face reduced utilization risk and should reassess capacity, pricing, and staffing plans; (2) vendors offering criminal-justice data, reporting, and information systems have a clear opportunity because the report underscores data limitations (no reliable comprehensive data on all noncitizens incarcerated by states and localities) and ongoing multi-agency activity (DOJ/BOP/ICE/BJA/DHS (Department of Homeland Security) involvement). All affected contractors should prioritize compliance surfaces cited in the Tags (for example, CJIS Security Policy and Privacy Act obligations) when proposing new solutions or capturing follow-on work. Monitor solicitations and program guidance from the agencies named in the Tags (DOJ, BOP, ICE, DHS, BJA) and be prepared to respond quickly as agencies and states adjust budgets and solicitations in response to the GAO findings.

Impact Matrix

Correctional Facilities Management

• Risk Level: High
• Opportunity: Re-evaluate demand forecasts for facility-managed services (housing, medical, food service, maintenance). Potential to repurpose or consolidate contracts where agencies reduce utilization. Specific opportunities TBD pending solicitation language. Relevant NAICS (from Tags): 922140.
• Timeline: GAO analyses referenced FY2017–FY2024 for BOP and state FY2016–FY2022 for SCAAP; program- and solicitation-level timelines TBD pending source review.
• Action Required: Stress-test utilization and revenue models against the reported declines; develop flexible staffing and facility-utilization proposals (e.g., short-term scalability, repurposing plans for declining inmate populations); closely monitor DOJ/BOP and state procurement notices for consolidation, contract modifications, or decommissioning opportunities.
• Competitive Edge: Offer modular, cost-saving operational models (flexible staffing, phased facility repurposing) and risk-sharing pricing that reduce agency near-term fiscal exposure.

Immigration Enforcement Services

• Risk Level: High
• Opportunity: Continued ICE removals tied to BOP releases sustain demand for certain enforcement and removal-support activities; coordinate with enforcement agencies on transition and post-release removal workflows. Specific opportunities TBD pending solicitation language. Relevant NAICS (from Tags): 561210, 561990.
• Timeline: GAO reports removals through FY2017–FY2024 with ICE removal counts as of December 2025; solicitation and program timelines TBD pending source review.
• Action Required: Maintain relationships and readiness to scale removal-support capabilities; prepare compliance-forward proposals that reference DOJ/BOP/ICE operational touchpoints; ensure operational readiness for any changes in detention-to-removal handoffs.
• Competitive Edge: Build integrated handoff services (case coordination, transport logistics, custody-transfer protocols) that minimize agency administrative burden and align with DOJ/BOP/ICE processes.

Criminal Justice Data Systems

• Risk Level: High
• Opportunity: GAO explicitly identifies gaps in reliable comprehensive data on noncitizens incarcerated by states and localities—an opening for analytics, data-integration, and reporting solutions to support federal and state transparency, program evaluation, and reimbursement processes (including SCAAP). Relevant NAICS (from Tags): 541690, 541611, 541219, 541990.
• Timeline: GAO analysis periods cited; program-level timelines for new data initiatives TBD pending source review.
• Action Required: Prepare CJIS- and Privacy Act-compliant offerings (see compliance surfaces in Tags); develop pilot-ready architectures for federated data collection, matching, and reporting that support SCAAP-like reimbursement and GAO-style oversight requests; prioritize interoperability with agency systems.
• Competitive Edge: Demonstrate turnkey CJIS-hardening, Privacy Act controls, and middleware that reduces agency integration risk while enabling standardized reporting across jurisdictions.

Detention Services

• Risk Level: High
• Opportunity: With declining noncitizen incarceration counts in BOP and SCAAP-eligible populations, demand for detention bed capacity and long-term fixed commercial detention contracts may soften—opportunities arise to offer cost-reduction strategies, transitional/short-term capacity, or alternative-use proposals. Specific opportunities TBD pending solicitation language. Relevant NAICS (from Tags): 922140, 561210.
• Timeline: See GAO periods (FY2017–FY2024; state FY2016–FY2022); procurement timelines TBD pending source review.
• Action Required: Reassess long-term fixed-cost commitments; propose flexible-use detention capacity (e.g., short-term surge support, conversion options) and demonstrate cost efficiency in proposals to DOJ/BOP/DHS/ICE.
• Competitive Edge: Present conversion/repurposing roadmaps (operations, staffing, compliance), and offer performance-based pricing tied to occupancy thresholds to reduce agency financial risk.

Law Enforcement Support Services

• Risk Level: Medium
• Opportunity: State and local entities continue to bear costs and administrative burdens (SCAAP reimbursements were ~$1.44 billion in the period analyzed); contractors can support jurisdictions in documentation, reimbursement claims, case processing, and cost-capture services. Specific opportunities TBD pending solicitation language. Relevant NAICS (from Tags): 541219, 561990, 541611.
• Timeline: GAO analyzed state fiscal years through 2022; engagement timelines vary by state and local budgeting cycles — solicitation timelines TBD pending source review.
• Action Required: Offer services to improve SCAAP claim accuracy and to implement internal cost-tracking for jurisdictions; educate state/local clients on documentation practices that support federal reimbursement and cost recovery.
• Competitive Edge: Package end-to-end SCAAP support (case documentation, audit support, analytics) and demonstrate prior results in improving reimbursement rates and reducing audit risk.

Justice Information Systems

• Risk Level: High
• Opportunity: Need for interoperable justice information systems, improved reporting for federal-state reimbursement, and analytics to inform policy and budget decisions. CJIS Security Policy and Privacy Act compliance will be central to procurements. Specific opportunities TBD pending solicitation language. Relevant NAICS (from Tags): 541690, 541611, 541219.
• Timeline: GAO used multi-year datasets (FY2016–FY2024 windows cited); procurement timelines TBD pending source review.
• Action Required: Ensure solutions are CJIS-compliant and Privacy Act-ready; prepare data governance, identity-matching, and reporting modules tailored to DOJ/BOP/BJA and state/local justice needs; position offerings to support GAO-style transparency and statutory reporting needs.
• Competitive Edge: Differentiate with proven CJIS-certified implementations, strong privacy controls, and demonstrable ability to deliver standardized reports for federal reimbursement and oversight.

Cross-Segment Implications

• Reduced noncitizen incarceration counts at the federal level cascade into lower utilization for correctional facilities and detention services, which in turn pressures contract volumes and state/local budgets tied to incarceration costs and reimbursements (SCAAP). That fiscal pressure may shift procurement toward consolidation, cost-savings, and flexible-contract models — affecting Correctional Facilities Management, Detention Services, and Law Enforcement Support Services in parallel.
• The GAO-identified data gaps create a cross-cutting demand for robust Criminal Justice Data Systems and Justice Information Systems that can support federal oversight, state reimbursement processes, and operational handoffs between BOP/ICE/DOJ and state/local partners. Better data and interoperable systems will influence program design and resource allocation across all segments.
• Compliance surfaces (CJIS Security Policy, Privacy Act) are a common constraint/opportunity: any data- or information-system solution must meet these requirements to be viable across the agency mix named in the Tags (DOJ, BOP, ICE, DHS, BJA), meaning vendors that can certify compliance gain cross-segment advantage.