Federal Programs: Assessing and Improving Effectiveness

TL;DR

GAO found that many federal programs lack clearly defined goals and the relevant data needed to assess whether they are achieving intended outcomes. The report underscores that without measurable goals and outcome data, agency leaders and Congress cannot determine if programs deliver intended results or represent good returns on taxpayer dollars. GAO’s work shows a repeatable three-step program performance management process that agencies can use to monitor and manage results; in some cases agencies have implemented GAO’s recommendations (e.g., DHS (Department of Homeland Security)’s Securing the Cities program improved tracking and performance measures between 2019 and 2024). GAO also identified a 2026 review of 15 programs serving pregnant women, young children, and families, finding three programs lacking full performance management processes. Immediate implications: agencies named in GAO work will prioritize performance management, creating demand signals for program evaluation, performance management, data analytics, and related consulting services; contractors should map capabilities to agency needs, refresh capture plans, and configure their Cabrillo Signals pipelines to detect follow-on solicitations and RFPs.

Key Points

• What happened: GAO’s work found many federal programs do not have clearly defined goals or relevant data to assess outcomes, limiting oversight and improvement.
• Who is affected: Segments include NAICS codes 541611, 541612, 541618, 541690, 541720, 541990, 541512, 541519, 541330 and agencies DHS, USDA, HHS, VA, GAO; market segments include Management Consulting, Program Evaluation, Performance Management, Data Analytics, Policy Analysis, Federal Program Assessment, Evidence-Based Policymaking.
• What the timeline is: Timeline TBD pending source review.
• What contractors should do NOW: update capture and capability statements to emphasize performance management and program evaluation experience; prime and sub teams should map offerings to GAO findings (outcomes-focused metrics, evaluation design, impact/process/outcome evaluations); configure Cabrillo Signals to rescore pipelines and alert on relevant solicitations and GAO follow-ups; notify capture/proposal leads and data teams and begin targeted outreach to agency program offices.

Who Is Affected

• NAICS: 541611, 541612, 541618, 541690, 541720, 541990, 541512, 541519, 541330 (from Segmentation).
• Agencies: DHS, USDA, HHS, VA, GAO (from Segmentation and Summary).
• Contract vehicles: OASIS+, ASTRO, Alliant 3 (from Segmentation).
• Compliance surfaces: GPRA, GPRAMA, OMB Circular A-11, DATA Act, Evidence Act (from Segmentation).
• Market segments: Management Consulting; Program Evaluation; Performance Management; Data Analytics; Policy Analysis; Federal Program Assessment; Evidence-Based Policymaking (from Segmentation).

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Does GAO require agencies to change their performance management processes?

A: GAO’s reports identify gaps and recommend actions; the Summary shows agencies sometimes implement recommendations (example: DHS Securing the Cities improved after 2019 recommendations). Specific mandatory changes or deadlines are Pending source review.

Q: Will this create new contracting opportunities?

A: The Summary indicates agencies will need goals, measures, and data systems—functions that map to Program Evaluation, Performance Management, and Data Analytics market segments. Exact solicitations and timelines are Pending source review.

Q: How should primes and subs reallocate resources?

A: Prioritize capture and proposal efforts around performance management, program evaluation, and data analytics capabilities. Use saved searches and opportunity rescoring to track follow-on solicitations tied to GAO recommendations. Specific agency program solicitations and dates are Pending source review.

Definitions

• Performance management: The process of setting goals, collecting relevant data, and using that information to assess whether a program is meeting its goals and to guide improvements.
• Outcome: The result or change that a program seeks to achieve (distinct from inputs and outputs).
• Program evaluations: Studies used to determine whether a program is working and why; includes process, outcome, and impact evaluations.
• Process evaluation: Assesses the extent to which a program is implemented as intended.
• Outcome evaluation: Assesses whether program activities align with desired outcomes and whether changes in outcomes are consistent with goals.
• Impact evaluation: Assesses the effect of a program by comparing results to what would have happened in its absence.

Intelligence Response

• Cabrillo Signals War Room — Already detected this event and delivered this briefing. Use War Room alerts to maintain continuous visibility on GAO follow-ups, agency responses, and related policy guidance.
• Cabrillo Signals Match Engine — Rescore current opportunity pipelines to surface contracts and solicitations that increase in relevance given a shift toward performance management and program evaluation work.
• Cabrillo Signals Intelligence Hub — Create saved searches for the affected agencies and contract vehicles (listed above) and receive notifications when GAO follow-on reports or agency solicitations appear on SAM.gov (System for Award Management).
• Proposal Studio (Proposal OS) and Proposal Studio Workflow Tracker — Prepare rapid-response proposal assets: compliance matrices, win themes focused on outcome-based measurement and evaluation methods, and route capture/proposal approvals through a 9-gate workflow.

Who to notify internally:

• BD / Capture Leads — for immediate pursuit decisions and outreach.
• Proposal Managers — to mobilize Proposal Studio templates and compliance matrices.
• Program Managers / Delivery Leads (Data & Evaluation) — to inventory capability readiness for performance management scopes.
• Compliance / Legal — to verify alignment with compliance surfaces listed above.

First 48-hour playbook

• Hour 0–4: Lock in cross-functional notification (BD, Capture, Proposals, Data Teams). Run Cabrillo Signals saved searches for DHS, USDA, HHS, VA, and GAO; export rescored opportunities.
• Hour 4–12: Use Match Engine to reprioritize pipeline; assign lead pursuit owners for top-priority opportunities. Begin gap analysis of current capabilities versus performance management and evaluation services.
• Hour 12–24: Assemble capability statement and one-page win themes in Proposal Studio; start 9-gate Workflow Tracker routing for any imminent bids or intelligence-driven outreach.
• Hour 24–48: Initiate targeted outreach to agency program offices and partners (per existing capture strategy); schedule capture reviews and develop evaluation/design approach drafts for proposals.

Useful internal resources:

• Primary hub: Winning Federal Contracts Guide (/insights/winning-federal-contracts)
• Related guides:
• CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) Compliance Guide (/insights/cmmc-compliance-guide)
• CUI (Controlled Unclassified Information)-Safe CRM Guide (/insights/cui-safe-crm-guide)