Firearms Education: ATF Should Use Performance Metrics and Information to Evaluate and Manage Outreach Campaign

TL;DR

GAO found that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) has run the Don’t Lie for the Other Guy public education campaign (at least 20 campaigns in FY2023–FY2025) and spent over $870,000 each year to support those campaigns, primarily to hire a marketing firm and run digital/streaming ads. ATF has three broad program goals and collects campaign metrics, but as of June 2026 the agency has not used those metrics to fully assess progress toward those goals or to inform programmatic decisions such as resource allocation. The review also clarifies ATF does not fund or manage NSSF’s Operation Secure Store campaign; NSSF manages and funds that effort and provides retailers with educational materials. Why this matters: ATF may move to establish measurable performance goals and use performance information to adjust marketing investments and outreach approaches, which could change how campaign dollars are awarded or managed. Immediate implications for contractors: marketing firms, outreach vendors, and firms that supply training or educational materials to firearms retailers should monitor ATF public guidance and solicitations for revised performance requirements and be ready to supply metrics-driven proposals. Use Cabrillo Signals to detect solicitations or policy updates and Proposal Studio to prepare compliance-focused bids.

Key Points

• What happened: GAO reviewed ATF’s role and federal funding for firearms education campaigns and found ATF ran at least 20 Don’t Lie for the Other Guy campaigns (FY2023–FY2025), spent over $870,000 each year, and has not used collected metrics to fully assess campaign progress as of June 2026.
• Who is affected: ATF, the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), federal firearms licensees (FFLs), and marketing firms engaged to produce campaign materials.
• Timeline: Fiscal years 2023 through 2025 activity reviewed; agency assessment status reported as of June 2026.
• What contractors should do NOW: Inventory any engagements tied to ATF campaign work; prepare metric-driven program descriptions and measurement plans; configure Cabrillo Signals to alert on ATF campaign guidance or solicitations; ready Proposal Studio templates and the Proposal Studio Workflow Tracker for rapid, audit-ready bid responses.

Who Is Affected

Affected parties include ATF, NSSF, federal firearms licensees (FFLs), and marketing firms that produce, advertise, or distribute campaign materials and digital ads for these campaigns. Specific NAICS codes, agencies, and contract vehicles pending source review.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What did GAO find about ATF’s use of campaign metrics?

GAO found ATF collects and tracks campaign metrics but had not used those metrics, as of June 2026, to fully assess progress toward the campaign’s broader program goals or to inform programmatic decisions such as resource allocation.

Q: Who funded the Don’t Lie for the Other Guy campaign and Operation Secure Store?

GAO’s review shows ATF launched and funded Don’t Lie for the Other Guy campaigns (ATF expended over $870,000 each year in FY2023–FY2025). ATF and NSSF jointly managed and launched the Don’t Lie for the Other Guy campaign. NSSF manages and provides sole funding for the Operation Secure Store campaign; ATF officials said ATF does not manage or provide federal funding for Operation Secure Store.

Q: What should vendors expect next from ATF or NSSF?

Pending source review for solicitations or specific guidance, vendors should expect possible changes in how ATF measures and justifies campaign effectiveness and potential shifts in resource allocation if ATF adopts measurable performance goals. Monitor official ATF communications and prepare metric-centered approaches for outreach contracts.

Definitions

• Straw purchases: When an individual who is prohibited from buying a firearm has someone else (a “straw buyer”) make the purchase for them.
• FFL (Federal Firearms Licensee): Individuals or businesses that have obtained a federal firearms license to sell, manufacture, or import firearms.
• Don’t Lie for the Other Guy campaign: A public education campaign intended to inform the public and FFLs about the legal consequences of straw purchases and how to identify and stop illegal straw purchases.
• Operation Secure Store: A firearms industry education and outreach campaign managed and funded by NSSF that provides FFLs with materials to identify security risks and deter thefts; ATF officials stated ATF does not manage or fund this campaign.

Intelligence Response

• Cabrillo Signals War Room — Already detected this GAO review and delivered this briefing. War Room will continuously monitor ATF public notices, GAO follow-ons, and any campaign-related solicitations or guidance.
• Cabrillo Signals Match Engine — Automatically rescoring pipelines and opportunity prioritization to surface affected outreach/marketing opportunities and flag those requiring metric-based approaches.
• Cabrillo Signals Intelligence Hub — Tracking ATF and NSSF as affected agencies, monitoring any related NAICS/contract vehicle changes, and saving searches to alert on follow-on solicitations as they appear on SAM.gov (System for Award Management).
• Proposal Studio (Proposal OS) — Preload metric-driven win themes, compliance matrices, and measurement plans so responses meet any new ATF performance requirements.
• Proposal Studio Workflow Tracker — Activate 9-gate capture workflow for any emergent solicitations with automated compliance routing and audit-ready documentation.

Who to notify: capture/capture manager, BD lead, proposal manager, and compliance/governance officer. First 48-hour playbook:

• Hour 0–4: Validate exposure — War Room confirms event and pushes alert to capture and BD leads. Set up a saved Intelligence Hub search for ATF campaign solicitations and GAO follow-ups.
• Hour 4–12: Triage pipeline — Match Engine rescoring runs; capture manager reviews reprioritized opportunities and marks targets for metric-driven bids. Proposal Studio templates prepared with performance measurement language.
• Hour 12–24: Assemble team — Proposal Workflow Tracker triggers 9-gate workflow, assigns writers and compliance reviewer, and starts evidence collection for metrics and past performance.
• Hour 24–48: Execute bid-readiness — Finalize measurement plans, pricing assumptions tied to campaign metrics, and submit bid/no-bid recommendations to BD leadership.

Related guidance and playbooks: Winning Federal Contracts Guide (/insights/winning-federal-contracts). For compliance and CRM handling of sensitive data tied to outreach, consult the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) Compliance Guide (/insights/cmmc-compliance-guide) and CUI (Controlled Unclassified Information)-Safe CRM Guide (/insights/cui-safe-crm-guide).