Firearms Education: ATF Should Use Performance Metrics and Information to Evaluate and Manage Outreach Campaign

Executive Summary

The GAO review found that ATF and the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) have run the "Don’t Lie for the Other Guy" outreach campaign across U.S. cities, with ATF launching at least 20 campaigns in fiscal years 2023–2025 and expending over $870,000 each year to support them. ATF used most of those funds to hire a marketing firm to produce, advertise, and distribute campaign materials (digital ads, streaming audio, press conferences). GAO identified that ATF has three broad program goals and collects campaign metrics but, as of June 2026, has not used those metrics to fully assess progress toward the campaign’s broader goals or to inform programmatic decisions such as resource allocation.

Contractors should pay attention because the GAO’s critique increases the likelihood of near-term program changes: ATF may be asked to develop measurable performance goals and to use performance information to reallocate resources or change campaign approaches. That creates both risk (shifts in funding or procurement approaches) and opportunity (new requirements for evaluation, measurement, or different media buys). A separate finding clarified that NSSF manages and funds Operation Secure Store and that ATF updated public-facing information to correct its role for that campaign.

Impact Matrix

federal firearms licensees (FFLs)

• Risk Level: Medium
• Opportunity: FFLs are a primary target audience of the campaigns (education to identify and stop straw purchases). Opportunities related to direct contracting are TBD pending solicitation language.
• Timeline: Fiscal years 2023 through 2025 (campaign launches), and GAO assessment status noted as of June 2026.
• Action Required:
• Review and document current internal training and reporting practices regarding straw-purchase indicators.
• Monitor ATF communications and outreach materials for updates driven by any ATF performance-measure reforms.
• Engage with industry associations to clarify training needs and share feedback on outreach effectiveness.
• Competitive Edge: Demonstrate measurable improvements in on‑site compliance practices and willingness to participate in pilot evaluations or data-sharing that could be used by agencies or industry groups to show program effectiveness.

firearms industry groups (e.g., NSSF)

• Risk Level: Medium
• Opportunity: Industry groups currently provide training/education materials and, for Operation Secure Store, manage and fund that campaign. Specific contracting or funding opportunities are TBD pending solicitation language.
• Timeline: Ongoing collaboration referenced in GAO review; GAO noted ATF updated public-facing info during review. Status as of June 2026.
• Action Required:
• Prepare to support ATF if the agency moves toward formalized performance metrics (e.g., offer data or evaluation support).
• Continue documenting campaign reach and training outcomes to defend or adapt self-funded initiatives such as Operation Secure Store.
• Competitive Edge: Package and present outcome-focused program materials (attendance, distribution, retailer behavior change proxies) that can be used to argue for continued or expanded partnership roles if ATF seeks external performance data.

marketing firms (advertising/communication contractors)

• Risk Level: High
• Opportunity: ATF has used marketing firms to produce and distribute campaign materials and expended substantial annual funding for these services in FY2023–FY2025. Specific procurement vehicles and NAICS codes are TBD pending solicitation language.
• Timeline: Work documented for fiscal years 2023–2025; GAO assessment and potential management changes as of June 2026.
• Action Required:
• Prepare capability statements that highlight measurable outcomes (reach, engagement, cost per impression, conversion proxies) to align with any new ATF emphasis on performance measurement.
• Maintain readiness to respond to potential re-scoping of outreach contracts if ATF shifts funding based on cost-effectiveness findings.
• Competitive Edge: Offer integrated campaigns with built-in measurement and evaluation components (A/B testing, attribution metrics, cost-effectiveness analyses) so proposals directly address GAO-identified gaps in performance use.

Cross-Segment Implications

• If ATF adopts GAO’s recommendation to set measurable performance goals and to use metrics for resource allocation, marketing firms may face new contract requirements emphasizing evaluation and cost-effectiveness; industry groups may be called on to provide outcome data; and FFLs may see altered outreach content or more targeted campaigns based on evaluated effectiveness.
• Clarification that NSSF funds Operation Secure Store reduces the likelihood of ATF-funded procurement for that specific campaign, which concentrates federal outreach funding (and procurement risk/opportunity) around the Don’t Lie for the Other Guy campaign and its contractors.
• Changes in how ATF uses performance information could cascade into revised scopes of work, new data-sharing or reporting obligations for contractors and industry groups, and altered messaging that affects on‑the‑ground retail practices among FFLs.